Your comments and suggestions are always invited and welcome at: johnparsons@gmail.com
Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Helping You Learn
Your comments and suggestions are always invited and welcome at: johnparsons@gmail.com
The QPF
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| The main QPF website is located here: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml |
QPF is one of the more common acronyms in Weather World lingo. It means Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. That's a real mouthful so you can easily see why Weather Wonks eagerly abbreviate the phrase.
By definition, QPF is measured over time. The shortest QPF time period we monitor is 24 hours. The longest QPF we look at covers 7-days. If you had to pick only ONE weather graphic to watch, it would have to be the QPF. The QPF distills everything down to the most important and basic level. How much precipitation is going to occur in my area over what time period?
The QPF is the first thing we look at in the morning and the last thing we see before we sleep. Once you get attuned to the QPF, you will find yourself often glancing only at it during the day. Looking at all the other stuff mostly comes into play when an impending storm event is nearby or underway.
It takes awhile to learn how to use the QPFs to their best advantage. Generally, you want to start out with the full 7-day and seek to see "whazzup" for the next full week. NOAA issues at least two QPFs per day and they extend by time intervals forward in time from the date and hour of issue.
The intervals are:
We ALWAYS start with the 7 Day. Then we begin to filter down to whichever time period "might" produce the most precipitation. It takes a lot of clicking back and forth between graphics but it's easier than it sounds and you'll get the hang of it in no time at all!
For those wishing a deeper insight into NOAA's QPFs, see:
The NWS AFD
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| https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/forecastoffice_tab.php |
One of the truly time-honored such traditions of NWS is the AFD. If QPF was your first & foremost acronym, then AFD becomes your second such shining light.
AFD = "Area Forecast Discussion." The Area Forecast Discussion is The Gold Standard of the NWS. It is The Gospel by which each and every NWS Office nationwide preaches to The Choir of Their Peers. AFDs are typically jargon-laden to the point they can cause brain damage as when you fall sound asleep reading them and your forehead hits your desk.
But please persevere! The AFDs are Your BFF! Once you learn how to actually read an AFD you will feel enlightened and uplifted and one of the Chosen Cognoscenti. You will be Forever FREED from TV weather babble and all the banal, boring, Sophomoric Soliloquies for which the evening news media is so justifiably infamous.
The AFDs are heart-to-heart narrative talks between The Brotherhood & Sisterhood of Genuine Weather Wonks. Yes, they speak a special language that takes years to learn but you, too, can at least read their distillations typically written in plain language even Huck Finn could understand.
Most of the NWS AFDs hotlink each piece of jargonism so you can learn more about it. For now, simply skip over anything you don't understand and just read with "soft eyes" and read for general content delivery. Don't worry about how long it takes you to uptake the jargon. The jargon isn't as important as what they are dearly striving to tell you, even if they speak in tongues you can't understand.
In the course of an given annual cycle, we typically follow the AFDs of a dozen NWS Offices. However, the Most Important AFDs are anchored hard ashore in Arizona and her Sister States.
Flagstaff AFD
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=fgz&product=AFD&format=CI&glossary=1
Phoenix AFD
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=psr&product=AFD&format=CI&glossary=1
Tucson AFD
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Las Vegas AFD
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=vef&product=AFD&format=CI&glossary=1
Salt Lake City AFD
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=slc&product=AFD&format=CI&glossary=1
Grand Junction AFD
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GJT&issuedby=GJT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
San Diego AFD
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=SGX&issuedby=SGX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Los Angeles AFD
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOX&issuedby=LOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Albuquerque AFD
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ABQ&issuedby=ABQ&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Big Picture Radar
Bottom Line
So what's the Bottom Line? How do you know if a storm's really gonna "Show Me The Money!" In The Verde Valley it's EZPZ. The Bottom Line is almost always instantly visible in stream flow figures. If a storm is a no show, then the Verde River and its tribs don't lie. They simply don't flow. No show, no flow!
If the storm is The Real Deal, The Verde River and its tribs stand up and salute and carry a full flow forward in fine & fitting fashion. EZPZ.
So, how do you keep track of this simple math? Well, Dear Friends, The U.S. Geological Survey and their pards has made it near brain-dead simple to watch. Just go here and scroll down to The Verde River Basin. Pick a point to ponder and a Whole World Of Data will soon open your eyes!
See: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/az/nwis/current/?type=flow
YCFCD Precip Data
How much rain? Isn't that always the question? Or the statement? Who knows how many times you've heard people say, "Well, we got an inch of rain at our place." Or perhaps you've been the one to brag, "Why, we had a six inch Arizona rain at our house!" (NOTE: A Six Inch Arizona rain denotes one drop every six inches.)
Yes, the amount of rainfall (or snow) is always a topic of conversation, both in person and online. So, just how do you find out factual rainfall figures? Well, in the case of Sedona and The Verde Valley, you're in luck...Major Luck. The Yavapai County Flood Control District has spent a lot of money installing a state-of-the-art rain/snow/flow monitoring system. We're arguably one of the best-equipped areas to monitor our own precipitation and streamflow. Thank You Very Much, YCFCD!
Below we will discuss the system and go through an example of how to use it.
On the morning of November 20, 2019, we skimmed the data and noticed what weather wonks call the "terrain favored" sites had received the most precipitation so far. We also noted Buzzard Ridge was one the top "producers," so to speak, with a storm total of 1.14 inches so far. So we decided to use Buzzard Ridge as an example here. You can see how the data appears in the graphic above. Precipitation amounts are laid out by time period. The time intervals are at the top of the page.
YCFCD also monitors stream flow and does an exceptionally good job with Oak Creek above and below Sedona. We will cover that aspect of their operation in a separate post.
Yes, the amount of rainfall (or snow) is always a topic of conversation, both in person and online. So, just how do you find out factual rainfall figures? Well, in the case of Sedona and The Verde Valley, you're in luck...Major Luck. The Yavapai County Flood Control District has spent a lot of money installing a state-of-the-art rain/snow/flow monitoring system. We're arguably one of the best-equipped areas to monitor our own precipitation and streamflow. Thank You Very Much, YCFCD!
Below we will discuss the system and go through an example of how to use it.
Above is the gateway page for the YCFCD monitoring system. You can either look at precip amounts in a table or an interactive map. The map can be tricky for some small screen devices so we always use the table. We click on "Precipitation by Watershed" and, generally, The Verde comes up to view first.
On the morning of November 20, 2019, we skimmed the data and noticed what weather wonks call the "terrain favored" sites had received the most precipitation so far. We also noted Buzzard Ridge was one the top "producers," so to speak, with a storm total of 1.14 inches so far. So we decided to use Buzzard Ridge as an example here. You can see how the data appears in the graphic above. Precipitation amounts are laid out by time period. The time intervals are at the top of the page.
Naturally, most folks wold be curious as to Buzzard Ridge's location. Luckily, YCFCD fully documents each and every one of their data sites. In this case, you can use either the long-lat provided (35°00'52.0"N 111°48'38.0"W) or use the FCC website to convert it to decimals:35.014444 -111.810556
Google Maps will generally bring up a very accurate location of any of the YCFCD data sites. In this case, Buzzard Ridge is located in the far upper West Fork drainage. It would be accessible by vehicle from The Woody Mountain Road.
Above is a closer view of the Buzzard Ridge data site. Finally, if you really want to take a close look at the Buzzard Ridge monitoring apparatus, just click one of the many photos YCFCD provides.
Local webcams
A very unscientific but Very Much Fun way to watch any given storm affecting Sedona and The Verde Valley is via webcam views. Fortunately, our area is blessed with perhaps more than its fair share of webcams. Below we provide screen clips of "all the usual suspects" as well as some comments and the source links.
Above is a webcam at the entrance to the South Rim of Grand Canyon National Park. This webcam is situated about 6,800 feet elevation so it's very useful to see if it's snowing yet up there. Source:
https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/photosmultimedia/webcams.htm
Most everybody knows ADOT runs a huge network of webcams statewide. There are several instructive local views. The one above is generally the first one that we watch. It's on State Route 89S and we believe it faces south. It doesn't really matter which way it faces. What we look for, of course, is snow but also the condition of that bar ditch on the right side of the view. On November 20, 2019, it was very instructive to us to see it filled with water so early in the morning.
Source: https://www.az511.gov/cctv
It's kinda tricky navigating the ADOT webcams. We will write a tutorial about it later.
There's a webcam at the McGuireville Rest Area. Generally, this site is in what we call The Verde Valley's "rain shadow." It just doesn't get that much precip during winter storms. It's useful to check out the horizons. Source: https://www.az511.gov/cctv
Here's the webcam that shows SR 89A just north of Sedona uptown.
Source: https://www.az511.gov/cctv
We do keep an eye on other I-17 ADOT webcams as well Source: https://www.az511.gov/cctv
Finally, here's The Prescott Plaza looking at the Yavapai County Courthouse. This one is extremely useful because it has a time lapse replay feature. Source:
https://www.weatherbug.com/weather-camera/?cam=PRSGS
The Arizona Snow Bowl webcams are at the top of the list when pondering most any given winter season storm. Sometimes you can't see a thing from this webcam. However, on the morning of November 20, visibility was still pretty good. The cam is located at 9,500 feet so it's no surprise that it's already snowing up there. Source: https://www.snowbowl.ski/the-mountain/webcams/
Sedona itself is "webcam rich" with numerous views of the community and surrounding scenery. Our favorite is the Seven Arches webcam which looms large right over the roundabout at Oak Creek. This webcam covers more territory over a typically shorter time period than any of the others. It does have annoying ads but it's worth the hassle just to enjoy the always lovely views.
Source: https://www.earthcam.com/usa/arizona/sedona/sevenarches/?cam=sedona7
Source: https://www.earthcam.com/usa/arizona/sedona/sevenarches/?cam=sedona7
Flagstaff runs a top notch webcam above the old train depot. It's arguably our most favorite webcam because of the fun stuff we can see. Source: https://www.flagstaffarizona.org/webcams/
Believe it or not, there are two train spotter webcams also attached to the old depot. One faces east and the other west. It's really fun to watch the trains come through a snowstorm. Most of the time, these webcams are ultra boring as nothing is happening and they don't pan or zoom. Scroll down on the Flagstaff webcam to find the links or use: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enHzusfLVSY&feature=youtu.be
https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/photosmultimedia/webcams.htm
Source: https://www.az511.gov/cctv
It's kinda tricky navigating the ADOT webcams. We will write a tutorial about it later.
Source: https://www.az511.gov/cctv
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